How TexCast scores

Conditions (Go, Caution or No-go) rates whether you can fish it safely and practically, hour by hour including night. Bite Outlook (Slow, Fair, Good, Prime) is a separate estimate of how favorable each hour looks for the fish you pick. Both are TexCast estimates, not promises.

Conditions rules with a published source

• 34 kt or more is a stop. Source: National Weather Service Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning criteria, read 2026-10-18.
• 20 kt or more is a stop. Source: National Weather Service Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning criteria, read 2026-10-18.
• Measured rain over the past hour caps the day at Caution. Source: National Weather Service rain-rate scale (moderate from 0.10 in per hour), read 2026-11-09.
• Observed radar over the water: light rain lowers the score, moderate or heavier caps the day at Caution. Source: NOAA MRMS base reflectivity via nowCOAST; 20 dBZ rain and 30 dBZ moderate (about 0.10 in per hour, Marshall-Palmer Z-R, NWS rain-rate scale), read 2026-11-10.
• Warnings stop the day, watches cap it at Caution. Source: National Weather Service alerts and forecast wording, read 2026-10-18.
• The forecast wording for thunderstorms. Source: National Weather Service alerts and forecast wording, read 2026-10-18.
• Under 0.6 mi is a stop; under 2.3 mi lowers the score. Source: National Weather Service marine visibility terms (boating in fog), read 2026-10-18.
• Flow far above normal is a stop. Source: USGS flow percentiles for each gauge, read 2026-10-18.
• Low flow caps the day at Caution. Source: USGS flow percentiles for each gauge, read 2026-10-18.
• Flow against the week's normal. Source: USGS flow percentiles for each gauge, read 2026-10-18.

Bite Outlook factors

• Water temperature against the fish's published range. Weight 0.30, strong evidence. Based on USFWS habitat suitability reports; TPWD cold-stress threshold for seatrout and red drum (40 F, reopen at 50 F), read 2026-10-30.
• In or out of the spawn or run window. Weight 0.15, strong evidence. Based on TPWD species pages (spawn and run windows), read 2026-11-10.
• Dawn, dusk, day or night for the fish. Weight 0.25, moderate evidence. Based on Moulton et al. 2017, Estuaries and Coasts 40:905 (Texas seatrout and red drum move more at night); dawn and dusk feeding in freshwater telemetry, read 2026-11-10.
• Days since TPWD stocked a spot at this water, rainbow trout only. Weight 0.20, strong evidence. Based on Harmon et al. 2018, PLoS ONE 13(1):e0190745 (stocked-trout catch falls by day 2); TPWD trout stocking schedule, read 2026-11-10.
• Reservoir percent full, largemouth bass on lakes only; effect size not read, so a gentle slope. Weight 0.10, moderate evidence. Based on Smith et al. 2024, NAJFM 44(1):79 (Texas black bass creel models: catch higher at higher percent full); TWDB lake levels, read 2026-11-10.
• Moving water against slack, coastal only. Weight 0.10, weak evidence. Based on TPWD red drum page (tides move fish between shallow and deep water); no controlled catch study, read 2026-11-10.

The fish's TPWD rating at that lake sets a ceiling: Excellent 100, Good 85, Fair 70, Poor 55 (TexCast's mapping of TPWD's words). Based on TPWD lake fishing pages (fish ratings Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor for each lake; the page's own words), read 2026-10-06.

Fish covered: largemouth bass, white bass, hybrid striped bass, crappie, channel catfish, rainbow trout, guadalupe bass, red drum, spotted seatrout, flounder.

What we leave out

Barometric pressure, cold fronts and solunar tables are not scored: no controlled study we found supports a reliable effect. No published study predicts hourly catch from weather, so the Bite Outlook is a model built on research priors and checked against anonymous shared results.

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